Ke hōʻike nei ka National Retail Federation ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i nā papahana e pili ana ka ikaika nui - ma kahi o ʻelua miliona TEU - i manaʻo ʻia no ʻAukake e hoʻomau ʻia a hiki i ʻOkakopa, e hōʻike ana i ka manaʻo nui i waena o nā mea lawe mai no ka ikaika o nā mea kūʻai aku i ka wā hoʻomaha, e like me ka mākeke ukana ʻo Freightos.
Loaʻa kēia mau manaʻo i ka mahina ʻo Kepakemapa a me ʻOkakopa i ka 6-7 pakeneka kiʻekiʻe ma mua o 2019, a ukali ʻia e kahi haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa i Nowemapa a me Kekemapa, me ka nui o 15 pakeneka kiʻekiʻe ma mua o ka maʻi maʻi. He hōʻailona paha kēia ikaika o ka Q4 hope loa o ka pōʻaiapuni o ka hoʻihoʻi hou ʻana, no ka mea, ua lohi loa kēia mau huahana no nā lā hoʻomaha.
Hōʻike nā ʻikepili hou mai ka ʻoihana uila i nā hōʻailona o ka manaʻolana e hoʻi hou ka noi no nā ʻāpana a me nā huahana hope i ka hopena o ka makahiki.
Nā ʻano leo
Ke piʻi mālie nei ka nui o ka ukana, e like me ka ʻikepili i hōʻiliʻili ʻia e Descartes ' global trade software Descartes Datamyne. Ua hoʻonui iki ʻia ka nui o nā pahu pahu US i ʻAukake i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me Iulai 2023, ka mea i kūlike me ka piʻi ʻana i ka wā kiʻekiʻe i nā makahiki non-pandemic. ʻOiai ka piʻi ʻana o ka leo, ua kokoke nā manawa transit port i ko lākou pae haʻahaʻa loa mai ka wā i hoʻomaka ai ʻo Descartes e hahai iā lākou.
Ma hope o ka hoʻoholo ʻana o kahi hoʻopaʻapaʻa hana, ua loaʻa i nā awa o West Coast ka māhele mākeke, wahi a Descartes. Ua hōʻike ʻia nā awa o West Coast o Los Angeles a me Long Beach i ka piʻi nui ʻana o ka pahu pahu, ʻoiai ʻo nā awa o New York/New Jersey a me Savannah i hōʻemi nui loa.
ʻOiai ke hoʻopilikia nei ka maloʻo ma Panama i kekahi mau moku moku, ʻaʻole ʻike ʻia ka hopena o ka nui o nā pahu pahu pahu US. ʻO nā leo ma nā awa ʻo Gulf i nā mahina ʻelua i hala aku nei i ko lākou pae kiʻekiʻe loa i kēia makahiki a ua haʻahaʻa mau ka manawa transit.
Ua piʻi aʻe ka lawe ʻana mai Kina i ʻAukake 2023, ua hōʻike ʻo Descartes: Ua piʻi ka piʻi ʻana o 1.5 pakeneka ma mua o Iulai 2023, akā ua emi iho lākou he 17.1 pakeneka mai ka A.ʻAukake 2022 kiʻekiʻe. Ua hōʻike ʻo Kina i ka 37.9 pākēneka o ka nui o nā ipu i lawe ʻia mai ʻAmelika i ʻAukake, kahi puʻupuʻu liʻiliʻi o 0.4 pākēneka mai Iulai, akā e emi mau ana ka 3.6 pākēneka mai ka kiʻekiʻe o 41.5 pākēneka i Pepeluali 2022.
Kūlana uku
Ke hakakā nei nā mea lawe e hoʻopaʻa a hoʻonui paha i nā kumukūʻai, e like me Freightos. Ua emi iki nā kumukūʻai Transpacific i ke Komohana Komohana - ma kahi o 7 pakeneka i ka mahina ʻo Kepakemapa - a ua pili nā kumukūʻai i ka Hikina Hikina. ʻO kēia kūpaʻa pili i Sepatemaba - ʻoiai ʻo kēia mau kumukūʻai, ʻoiai me nā leo kiʻekiʻe, ke hoʻomaʻamaʻa ʻia nei e nā kaohi koʻikoʻi e nā mea lawe - hiki ke kuhikuhi i ka kūlike o nā puke i hoʻolālā ʻia e ka NRF a me ka hiki ke piʻi maʻalahi akā hoʻomau a hiki i ʻOkakopa.
Akā ʻo ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻana i nā kumukūʻai - ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka emi ʻana - i nā pule ma mua o ka Golden Week i ka manawa e piʻi pinepine ai ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai, a me nā hōʻike anecdotal he nui o ka emi ʻana o nā puke moana, e kuhikuhi i ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, wahi a Freightos.
I loko o kahi webinar hōʻano hou o ka mākeke, ʻo Robert Khachatryan, Luna Nui o ka freight forwarder Freight Right Logistics, i ʻōlelo ʻia he nui nā mea kūʻai aku e hōʻike ana i "nā hāʻule i nā kauoha a me nā manaʻolana o ka hāʻule ʻana o ka hoʻolimalima ʻana o nā mea kūʻai aku ma Q4," a ʻo ka hāʻule ʻana o ka uku ukana ma mua o Golden Week wale nō. e hoʻohui i ka kānalua e hoʻomau ka piko o kēia makahiki a hiki i Sepatemaba a i ʻole.
Inā e emi ana ka noi i ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka hiki, e kū hou ana nā mea lawe i nā pilikia e hoʻomau i nā uku kiʻekiʻe.
ʻO ka overcapacity ma ka mākeke ke koi nei i kekahi e hoʻopau i nā moku ultra nui hou ma mua o kā lākou huakaʻi mua mai Asia a i ʻEulopa. Ua hāʻule nā kumukūʻai ma kēia alahele he 8 pakeneka i ka pule i hala i $ 1,608/FEU, wahi a Freightos, ʻoiai ke kū nei nā kumukūʻai ma luna o nā pae 2019. I ka pane ʻana, ke hoʻolaha nei nā mea lawe i nā holo ʻokoʻa ʻē aʻe i loko o nā pule ma hope o ka hoʻomaha ʻo Golden Week, me ka manaʻo e hoʻemi ʻia ke koi i nā pule maʻamau ʻo ʻAsia - N. ʻEulopa.
ʻOiai ʻo ka nui o ka moana i hōʻike ʻia e ikaika mau ana no Asia - ke kālepa Mediterranean, ke hāʻule nei nā kumukūʻai. Ke alakaʻi ʻia nei kēia emi ʻana e nā mea lawe i hoʻohui i ka nui o ka mana i nā mahina i hala iho nei e like me ke koi ʻana i ka ikaika; ke wehe nei lākou i ka hiki ke hoʻāʻo a hoʻohālikelike i nā leo.
Ua hoʻoneʻe pū nā mea lawe i nā moku he nui i ke kālepa transatlantic no ka hapa nui o kēia makahiki ʻoiai ke emi ʻana o nā puke, a ua hāʻule nā kumukūʻai no ka hapa nui o ka makahiki i hala. Ua ʻike ʻo Freightos i ka hāʻule ʻana o 7 pakeneka i ka pule i hala ma lalo o $ 1,100 / FEU - 45 pākēneka haʻahaʻa ma mua o 2019 - a ua hoʻolaha nā mea lawe i ka piʻi nui ʻana o ka holo ʻana e hoʻāʻo a hoʻihoʻi i nā kumukūʻai.
Ke alakaʻi nei nā hōʻailona o ke kau kiʻekiʻe o ka moana i ka pessimism e pili ana i ka ikaika o ke kau kiʻekiʻe o ka ea i nā mahina e hiki mai ana, wahi a Freightos. I kēia manawa, hōʻike ʻo Khachatryan i ka ʻike ʻana i "kekahi piʻi nui o ka noi no ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i ka ea transpacific i nā pule i hala iho nei," ʻo ia hoʻi, me ka lohi ʻana o ka mākaʻikaʻi ma Kina ʻaʻole i hoʻohui i ka nui o nā mea kaʻa i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me nā wahi ʻē aʻe, hiki ke helu no ka 37 pakeneka ka piʻi ʻana ma Kina - N. America Freightos Air Index i $4.78/kg mai ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ʻAukake.
Kumu maiNūhou EPS-Hoʻopuka ʻia ma, Na ka Nupepa
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Sep-14-2023